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We present a dynamical study of 39 active Centaurs and 17 high-perihelion (q> 4.5 au) Jupiter-family comets (JFCs) with a focus on investigating recent orbital changes as potential triggers for comet-like activity. We have identified a common feature in the recent dynamical histories of all active Centaurs and JFCs in our sample that is not present in the history of the majority of inactive population members: a sharp decrease in semimajor axis and eccentricity occurring within the past several hundred years prior to observed activity. We define these rapid orbital changes as “a-jumps.” Our results indicate that these orbital reshaping events lead to shorter orbital periods and subsequently greater average per-orbit heating of Centaur nuclei. We suggest that thea-jumps could therefore be a major trigger of cometary activity on Centaurs and JFCs. Our results further imply that analyses of the recent dynamical histories could be used to identify objects that are currently active or may become active soon, where we have identified three such Centaurs with recenta-jumps that should be considered high-priority targets for observational monitoring to search for activity.

 

Abstract Centaurs are small bodies orbiting in the giant planet region that were scattered inward from their source populations beyond Neptune. Some members of the population display comet-like activity during their transition through the solar system, the source of which is not well understood. The range of heliocentric distances where the active Centaurs have been observed and their median lifetime in the region suggest that this activity is driven neither by water-ice sublimation nor entirely by supervolatiles. Here we present an observational and thermodynamical study of 13 Centaurs discovered in the Pan-STARRS1 detection database aimed at identifying and characterizing active objects beyond the orbit of Jupiter. We find no evidence of activity associated with any of our targets at the time of their observations with the Gemini North telescope in 2017 and 2018, or in archival data from 2013 to 2019. Upper limits on the possible volatile and dust production rates from our targets are 1–2 orders of magnitude lower than production rates in some known comets and are in agreement with values measured for other inactive Centaurs. Our numerical integrations show that the orbits of six of our targets evolved interior to r ∼ 15 au over the past 100,000 yr, where several possible processes could trigger sublimation and outgassing, but their apparent inactivity indicates that either their dust production is below our detection limit or the objects are dormant. Only one Centaur in our sample—2014 PQ 70 —experienced a sudden decrease in semimajor axis and perihelion distance attributed to the onset of activity for some previously known inactive Centaurs, and therefore it is the most likely candidate for any future outburst. This object should be a target of high interest for any further observational monitoring.